The latest issue of the American "Forbes" was officially published at the end of December 2010. The cover article of this issue is titled "Gene Sequencing Technology Advances by leaps and bounds." The article introduces gene entrepreneur Jonathan Rothberg and the powerful gene sequencing instrument he invented. The article believes that this invention may be a revolution in medicine, food, energy, and even consumer products, thereby forming a technology market with a scale of up to $ 100 billion.
The gene decoder invented by Rothberg with a length, width and height of only 24X20X21 inches may change the way of human life. This small device that looks like a toy or a handheld computer may indeed be another huge impact on the technology world since the personal computer, and will form a market with a scale of 100 billion US dollars in the future.
This Personal Genome Machine (PGM) built on the basis of silicon chips is the smallest and cheapest listed product in the world today. It can interpret 10 million letters of genetic code with high precision within 2 hours. Unlike existing DNA scanning equipment that uses large computers and servers, PGM can be placed on a desk and is priced at only $ 50,000, which is one-tenth of current instruments with similar functions. This is also the first time in history that an individual scientist, community hospital and university can afford an instrument.
This gadget invented by Rothberg and other engineers can also be used to change medicine, agriculture, nanotechnology and other renewable fuel exploration. Rothberg said that in the not-too-distant future, doctors can use DNA sequencing to repair genetic defect sites in tumors, and take targeted medicines according to different situations of cancer patients. Children with rare congenital diseases can decode more of their genomes to eliminate estimation and misdiagnosis.
PGM is more suitable for outdoor medical environment. Rescue workers working in the third world can use this portable genetic decoder to track bacteria or viruses that cause water pollution. Airport health officials can use it to sample and analyze travelers' genes and track infectious bacteria and viruses before large-scale outbreaks. Engineers can also use PGM to design and cultivate microorganisms for future fuels. DNA sequencing also helps farmers cultivate grain varieties that grow faster, are more resistant to insect pests, are more drought-tolerant, and have fewer chemical fertilizers. Synthetic biologists can also make bacteria serve human beings to make washing liquids, clothing, furniture, and even cement that can heal cracks.
According to Rothberg, gene sequencing will affect all aspects of human life in the future. Just as the last century was the era of physics, this century is the century of biology. He is convinced that the market resulting from the commercialization of gene sequencing technology can reach a scale of $ 100 billion like medical imaging technology.
Rothberg has created 4 companies related to genetics. The Ion Torrent company that invented the PGM instrument was created after Rothberg dreamed of detecting DNA quickly and easily three years ago. Rothberg's invention has attracted strong attention from a professional production laboratory equipment company called Life Technologies. Prior to the official production of PGM, Life Technologies acquired Ion Torrent last fall for $ 375 million. Some molecular genetics experts believe that Rothberg has wonderful ideas and can make the project team work smoothly.
Finding disease-causing error codes in genes and separating them from a variety of harmless gene variants will be a major challenge in cracking huge amounts of information. However, the technology to meet the challenge is also improving at a high speed. Researchers hired by the government 10 years ago, after spending $ 3 billion in taxpayer funds, finally successfully unveiled the human genetic code for the first time. Thanks to the efforts of a number of private organizations such as genetic legend Craig Venter, people now only need to spend 10,000 US dollars and wait a few weeks to accurately interpret their entire DNA sequence. So far, nearly 3,000 people, most of them have obtained sequencing results in research projects. Some gene sequencing experts say that the number of people who can obtain sequencing results will soar to hundreds of thousands by 2012. According to Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), what he can do now is something he didn't dare to think about a few years ago.
Although the top medical journals have introduced the results of genetics research in succession, most scientists have not been exposed to DNA-decoding technology. Existing gene sequencing instruments are like large computers that cost up to $ 600,000 in the 1960s. Each sequencing result has to wait for a week, and a technical team is needed to run the sequencing instruments. According to a report by Goldman Sachs, half of the 1400 sequencing instruments worldwide are installed in 20 large academic and government research centers.
However, sequencing technology and instruments are still a very small market, with a hardware scale of only $ 1.5 billion, and the users are all scientists. PricewaterhouseCoopers estimates that medical genetic testing and other molecular diagnostics constitute another $ 2.6 billion market.
Rothberg's bold assumptions about the possible market conditions in the next 20 years are as follows.
The treatment of cancer is the largest application market in the short term. The cost of treating cancer patients today has reached hundreds of thousands, even millions of dollars. Some breast cancer patients have begun to undergo specialized genetic testing to help doctors treat the patients according to their specific conditions. If similar gene sequencing can become a routine test for 4 million breast cancer patients in Europe and the United States, this alone can form a $ 20 billion market. Some patients may need to perform sequencing multiple times due to tumor spread and mutation, thus allowing the total market size to reach 40 billion US dollars.
Another $ 10 billion market may come from sequencing children and adults with rare genetic diseases or other genetic risk factors. In addition, the understanding and explanation of the complex information obtained by gene sequencing, as well as explaining the significance of this information to patients, a brand new medical professional field, will also bring another $ 10 billion market.
Businesses that track infectious diseases in hospitals, airports, and shopping malls to break down microbes and prevent their prevalent business can also form a market of about $ 10 billion.
If the cost of sequencing continues to decline, the affluent population, as a preventive measure, will begin to sequence the genome of themselves and the next generation of newborns. If 50 million people spend $ 2,000 per test per year, the market size could reach $ 10 billion. In this way, the global market has reached 80 billion US dollars.
Animal husbandry screening the best breeding and seed selection to make crops more efficient, may bring another 5 billion US dollars to the market.
Also like exploring other artificial biofuels, new enzymes designed for washing liquids, and some new applications that have not yet been thought of, it can easily form a $ 15 billion market. As a result, the PGM application market totaled 100 billion US dollars.
The price of genetic testing will also fall, making each test a lower profit margin item like testing blood indicators such as blood sugar and cholesterol. But even so, the market in this area can reach 40 billion US dollars. The device invented by Rothberg may not win. Just as the Commodore64 home computer that monopolized the PC market in the 1980s soon disappeared from the market, PGM may have the same fate.
At least more than a dozen startups are currently competing in this field. Pacific Biosciences Inc. (11.38, 0.38, 3.45%), located in Menlo Park, California, invested $ 370 million in venture capital funds and raised $ 200 million in its initial public offering in October last year. The company's gene sequencing instrument will be available at the beginning of this year. It is also the first instrument that can sequence a single DNA. Complete Genomics in Mountain View, not far away, even believes that DNA sequencing will become a service industry like pathology. In this field, all information needs to be sent to a very large central laboratory for processing.
The gene decoder invented by Rothberg with a length, width and height of only 24X20X21 inches may change the way of human life. This small device that looks like a toy or a handheld computer may indeed be another huge impact on the technology world since the personal computer, and will form a market with a scale of 100 billion US dollars in the future.
This Personal Genome Machine (PGM) built on the basis of silicon chips is the smallest and cheapest listed product in the world today. It can interpret 10 million letters of genetic code with high precision within 2 hours. Unlike existing DNA scanning equipment that uses large computers and servers, PGM can be placed on a desk and is priced at only $ 50,000, which is one-tenth of current instruments with similar functions. This is also the first time in history that an individual scientist, community hospital and university can afford an instrument.
This gadget invented by Rothberg and other engineers can also be used to change medicine, agriculture, nanotechnology and other renewable fuel exploration. Rothberg said that in the not-too-distant future, doctors can use DNA sequencing to repair genetic defect sites in tumors, and take targeted medicines according to different situations of cancer patients. Children with rare congenital diseases can decode more of their genomes to eliminate estimation and misdiagnosis.
PGM is more suitable for outdoor medical environment. Rescue workers working in the third world can use this portable genetic decoder to track bacteria or viruses that cause water pollution. Airport health officials can use it to sample and analyze travelers' genes and track infectious bacteria and viruses before large-scale outbreaks. Engineers can also use PGM to design and cultivate microorganisms for future fuels. DNA sequencing also helps farmers cultivate grain varieties that grow faster, are more resistant to insect pests, are more drought-tolerant, and have fewer chemical fertilizers. Synthetic biologists can also make bacteria serve human beings to make washing liquids, clothing, furniture, and even cement that can heal cracks.
According to Rothberg, gene sequencing will affect all aspects of human life in the future. Just as the last century was the era of physics, this century is the century of biology. He is convinced that the market resulting from the commercialization of gene sequencing technology can reach a scale of $ 100 billion like medical imaging technology.
Rothberg has created 4 companies related to genetics. The Ion Torrent company that invented the PGM instrument was created after Rothberg dreamed of detecting DNA quickly and easily three years ago. Rothberg's invention has attracted strong attention from a professional production laboratory equipment company called Life Technologies. Prior to the official production of PGM, Life Technologies acquired Ion Torrent last fall for $ 375 million. Some molecular genetics experts believe that Rothberg has wonderful ideas and can make the project team work smoothly.
Finding disease-causing error codes in genes and separating them from a variety of harmless gene variants will be a major challenge in cracking huge amounts of information. However, the technology to meet the challenge is also improving at a high speed. Researchers hired by the government 10 years ago, after spending $ 3 billion in taxpayer funds, finally successfully unveiled the human genetic code for the first time. Thanks to the efforts of a number of private organizations such as genetic legend Craig Venter, people now only need to spend 10,000 US dollars and wait a few weeks to accurately interpret their entire DNA sequence. So far, nearly 3,000 people, most of them have obtained sequencing results in research projects. Some gene sequencing experts say that the number of people who can obtain sequencing results will soar to hundreds of thousands by 2012. According to Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), what he can do now is something he didn't dare to think about a few years ago.
Although the top medical journals have introduced the results of genetics research in succession, most scientists have not been exposed to DNA-decoding technology. Existing gene sequencing instruments are like large computers that cost up to $ 600,000 in the 1960s. Each sequencing result has to wait for a week, and a technical team is needed to run the sequencing instruments. According to a report by Goldman Sachs, half of the 1400 sequencing instruments worldwide are installed in 20 large academic and government research centers.
However, sequencing technology and instruments are still a very small market, with a hardware scale of only $ 1.5 billion, and the users are all scientists. PricewaterhouseCoopers estimates that medical genetic testing and other molecular diagnostics constitute another $ 2.6 billion market.
Rothberg's bold assumptions about the possible market conditions in the next 20 years are as follows.
The treatment of cancer is the largest application market in the short term. The cost of treating cancer patients today has reached hundreds of thousands, even millions of dollars. Some breast cancer patients have begun to undergo specialized genetic testing to help doctors treat the patients according to their specific conditions. If similar gene sequencing can become a routine test for 4 million breast cancer patients in Europe and the United States, this alone can form a $ 20 billion market. Some patients may need to perform sequencing multiple times due to tumor spread and mutation, thus allowing the total market size to reach 40 billion US dollars.
Another $ 10 billion market may come from sequencing children and adults with rare genetic diseases or other genetic risk factors. In addition, the understanding and explanation of the complex information obtained by gene sequencing, as well as explaining the significance of this information to patients, a brand new medical professional field, will also bring another $ 10 billion market.
Businesses that track infectious diseases in hospitals, airports, and shopping malls to break down microbes and prevent their prevalent business can also form a market of about $ 10 billion.
If the cost of sequencing continues to decline, the affluent population, as a preventive measure, will begin to sequence the genome of themselves and the next generation of newborns. If 50 million people spend $ 2,000 per test per year, the market size could reach $ 10 billion. In this way, the global market has reached 80 billion US dollars.
Animal husbandry screening the best breeding and seed selection to make crops more efficient, may bring another 5 billion US dollars to the market.
Also like exploring other artificial biofuels, new enzymes designed for washing liquids, and some new applications that have not yet been thought of, it can easily form a $ 15 billion market. As a result, the PGM application market totaled 100 billion US dollars.
The price of genetic testing will also fall, making each test a lower profit margin item like testing blood indicators such as blood sugar and cholesterol. But even so, the market in this area can reach 40 billion US dollars. The device invented by Rothberg may not win. Just as the Commodore64 home computer that monopolized the PC market in the 1980s soon disappeared from the market, PGM may have the same fate.
At least more than a dozen startups are currently competing in this field. Pacific Biosciences Inc. (11.38, 0.38, 3.45%), located in Menlo Park, California, invested $ 370 million in venture capital funds and raised $ 200 million in its initial public offering in October last year. The company's gene sequencing instrument will be available at the beginning of this year. It is also the first instrument that can sequence a single DNA. Complete Genomics in Mountain View, not far away, even believes that DNA sequencing will become a service industry like pathology. In this field, all information needs to be sent to a very large central laboratory for processing.
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