Sensitivity Analysis and Application Research of Packaging Projects (I)

Abstract : This paper describes the theory of sensitivity analysis of packaging engineering projects, discusses its methods, and studies its application in packaging engineering projects.

Keywords: Packaging: Project; Sensitivity; Analysis

Sensitivity analysis, also known as sensitivity analysis

It is a commonly used method of studying uncertainties in technical economic evaluation. Generally speaking, it studies the degree of uncertainties on the basis of cost-effective cooperation, and further measures the degree of impact of various uncertainties on the value of project economic benefits, in order to identify the sensitive factors affecting economic efficiency and reveal the project plan. Economical.

In the process of investment and construction or expansion, equipment renewal and transformation, technology development and introduction, non-packaging enterprises need to study uncertainties in the process of renovating or expanding packaging workshops or production lines and improving product packaging. The degree of impact of the benefit. For example, when investing in the introduction of an automatic packaging production line, the investment return rate may be affected by various uncertainties such as production capacity, product price, and product sales volume. It is confirmed that if the production capacity is reduced by 10%, the investment return rate will be 20% from the expected value. Decline to 14%; if sales revenue rises by 15%, the investment return rate rises from the expected value of 20% to 27%. This shows that the investment return rate is affected by two uncertain factors: production capacity and sales revenue, which is the production capacity. The change reflects weaker, while the change in sales revenue reflects stronger. Therefore, for the investment return rate of the project, the production capacity is a non-sensitive factor, and the sales revenue is a sensitive factor, and the latter brings a greater risk to the project investment than the former. The further conclusion is: To make the program feasible, measures must be taken to ensure that sales revenue reaches a certain height.

2. According to the characteristics and requirements of the packaging project, the sensitivity analysis is roughly divided into the following steps:

(1) Select the analysis target. Packaging engineering projects are generally service-oriented and accessory-type engineering projects. Therefore, when conducting sensitivity analysis, first of all, according to the requirements of the project itself, the characteristics and its external allocation, and the construction of main projects, scientifically select the objects of analysis. Under normal circumstances, the object of sensitivity analysis is to use the technical economic indicators to reflect the economic benefits of the project, investment return rate, investment recovery period, additional investment recovery period, net present value, internal rate of return, minimum cost. For packaging engineering projects, one or two types of integrated products should be selected to be highly integrated, and they should be linked to the technical and economic indicators of the external distribution and main projects. Comparable indicators, such as the investment return rate index for newly-built automatic packaging production lines, can be selected. For technological transformation, investment recovery period indicators may be used, and technological transformations may be used to select investment recovery period indicators for improved packaging. Can use the minimum cost indicator and so on.

(2) Calculate the evaluation value of the analysis index according to the basic parameters of the project. The evaluation value of the investment recovery period of the project can be calculated based on the basic parameters such as the investment amount, construction period, production period, cost price, product price and product sales volume of the project. It is worth noting here that the basic parameters of a packaging project are often influenced by its external distribution projects and main projects. Therefore, you must correct it accordingly.

(3) Set uncertainties affecting the analysis indicators. There are many uncertainties affecting the economic benefits of packaging projects, and packaging engineering projects face more applications of new technology and new materials than those of other industrial projects, and the emergence of new substitutes, coupled with ongoing changes in China's economic operations. Among them, the knowledge economy, globalization has made it faced with a more complex environment and brought a lot of uncertainties. Of course, it is unnecessary and impossible to investigate all the uncertainties one by one. Generally, it is only necessary to set several factors that have a greater impact and a greater range of change according to the characteristics of the project. For example, a considerable part of packaging engineering projects have a large demand for raw materials, and their supply is completely regulated by the market or imported from abroad. Therefore, raw material price is an uncertain factor that should be taken into consideration; if the product price and sales volume are also subject to market regulation and customer operations. The impact of the situation, sales revenue should also be a definite factor that should be considered.

(4) Calculate the degree of influence of uncertainties on the analysis indicators and identify the sensitive factors. The relatively simple and easy approach is: 1 Calculate each uncertainty factor one by one, and analyze the change value of the indicator when it changes. 2 In the form of a table or graph, the corresponding quantitative relationship between the change of the uncertainty factor and the change of the analysis index is expressed. 3 Analyze the rate of change of the factors in the table or the slope of the curve in the graph to determine the sensitive factors.

(5) Compare and evaluate the plans, propose risk countermeasures or choose alternatives

(to be continued)

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