This article focuses on the market for cultural paper, which is the market for printing paper, writing paper and newsprint. The main overview of the market situation in North America, Western Europe, Japan and Southeast Asia.
About 77% of the world's printing and writing paper production capacity is distributed in three major production regions - North America, Western Europe and Japan. Only North America and Western Europe are net exports to other world markets. Western Europe has a production capacity of 5.5 million tons of printing and writing paper, and it is theoretically sufficient to meet the requirements of the region. This part of the surplus will have to be found in North America. Most of the cultural papers with mechanical pulp include coated and uncoated.
Newsprint market conditions. Western Europe’s production capacity ranks second after their North American competitors. North America’s main competitor is Canada, and newsprint is its main product. In North America, there are 3.4 million tons of surplus production capacity each year, some of which are produced in Western Europe, and most of them still seek ways to enter other world markets, such as South America and Southeast Asia.
The growth trend of production capacity in recent years The development of printing paper, writing paper and newsprint differs from the model of 1985-1995 (see Table 1 to 2). The growth rate of the production capacity of printing and writing paper is an average annual growth rate of 4.7%, which is basically synchronized with the annual growth rate of consumption development of 4.5%. In contrast, the demand rate of newsprint is 2.2% annual growth rate, which is higher than the speed of production. In the same period, the pace of production growth was only 1.8%.
Let us take a look at the different situations in different regions. Southeast Asia is obviously different from the rest of the world. Since 1985, the annual production capacity of newsprint and printing and writing paper in the region has grown by more than 8%, clearly ahead of other regions. The market for newsprint is different, and the performance of the regions is similar. They are the highest rate of development. The average growth rate in Western Europe is 3% year-on-year, and the pace of development in Southeast Asia is also quite impressive. Mainly in the decade since the 1990s, the production capacity of certain countries, such as Indonesia and South Korea, has undergone major changes. The development of some important countries in Southeast Asia is shown in Table 2~3.
Unlike some emerging industrial development countries in Southeast Asia, the industrial production capacity of some countries in other regions is low-speed growth. Many East European countries are these. In recent years, their development has often been affected by some drastic political events. The total production of their printing and writing papers showed a downward trend (down 15.2 tons per year) from 1985 to 1995. Newsprint has dropped by 31.5 tons/year in the past period.
There are also certain problems in North America. In the early 1990s, due to certain problems and outdated equipment, some newsprint mills in Canada were closed, which resulted in only a slight increase in North American newsprint production capacity. In the past 10 years, the average rose only 0.7%.
Although the situation in Japan is better, it is similar to that in North America. The development speed of Japanese newsprint production capacity is lower than the world average (annual increase of 1.9%). But in the past 10 years, printing and writing paper has grown by nearly 4 million tons a year, which is an annual growth rate of about 5%.
Western European markets have a high rate of growth in cultural paper. The average annual growth of newsprint during the period 1985-1995 was 3%, and the annual growth rate of printing and writing paper was almost 5%.
What will be the level of development in the production capacity of supply in the next century?
We have reviewed the situation in the past 10 years. What will happen in the future? There are many comments on the excess production capacity of the paper industry and the problems faced by the paper industry. What will be the real situation of the paper industry in the future?
Practice has shown that it is possible to divide production capacity forecast numbers into two categories: one is the number that has been determined, and the other is the number of inferences. The former plan has been implemented, the contract has been signed, and the civil construction has begun...etc. In the latter case, although the abstract plan has been announced, it has not been finalized and put into practice; in some cases there is not even a single point of implementation. Based on these circumstances, we consider the development of production capacity in the coming years and can only consider those identified plans.
The development characteristics of production capacity are based on plans already in place. The development of newsprint production capacity in the world is expected to increase by 3.6 million tons per year by the year 2000. This means that the annual growth rate is 1.4%, which is lower than the historical development level. The development of printing and writing paper production capacity will have a higher growth rate. From the established plans, by the year 2000, the annual production capacity will increase by 10 million tons, and the annual increase rate will be 2%.
In the next few years, Southeast Asian countries will still be in the same leading position as in the past few years. By the year 2000, the production capacity of cultural paper in Southeast Asia will increase by 7 million tons per year. During the period, 2.5 million tons were newsprint and desperate for printing and typing paper. South Korea and Indonesia are still the fastest-growing producers in the period. However, other countries such as Thailand and Malaysia will also make full use of their forest resources as planned to develop their production capacity. China is a country with great potential for development. China is a country with great potential for development, but in the near future, they will renew their existing high-speed production enterprise structure, and at the same time deepen their efforts to build new companies as far as possible. (to be continued)
About 77% of the world's printing and writing paper production capacity is distributed in three major production regions - North America, Western Europe and Japan. Only North America and Western Europe are net exports to other world markets. Western Europe has a production capacity of 5.5 million tons of printing and writing paper, and it is theoretically sufficient to meet the requirements of the region. This part of the surplus will have to be found in North America. Most of the cultural papers with mechanical pulp include coated and uncoated.
Newsprint market conditions. Western Europe’s production capacity ranks second after their North American competitors. North America’s main competitor is Canada, and newsprint is its main product. In North America, there are 3.4 million tons of surplus production capacity each year, some of which are produced in Western Europe, and most of them still seek ways to enter other world markets, such as South America and Southeast Asia.
The growth trend of production capacity in recent years The development of printing paper, writing paper and newsprint differs from the model of 1985-1995 (see Table 1 to 2). The growth rate of the production capacity of printing and writing paper is an average annual growth rate of 4.7%, which is basically synchronized with the annual growth rate of consumption development of 4.5%. In contrast, the demand rate of newsprint is 2.2% annual growth rate, which is higher than the speed of production. In the same period, the pace of production growth was only 1.8%.
Let us take a look at the different situations in different regions. Southeast Asia is obviously different from the rest of the world. Since 1985, the annual production capacity of newsprint and printing and writing paper in the region has grown by more than 8%, clearly ahead of other regions. The market for newsprint is different, and the performance of the regions is similar. They are the highest rate of development. The average growth rate in Western Europe is 3% year-on-year, and the pace of development in Southeast Asia is also quite impressive. Mainly in the decade since the 1990s, the production capacity of certain countries, such as Indonesia and South Korea, has undergone major changes. The development of some important countries in Southeast Asia is shown in Table 2~3.
Unlike some emerging industrial development countries in Southeast Asia, the industrial production capacity of some countries in other regions is low-speed growth. Many East European countries are these. In recent years, their development has often been affected by some drastic political events. The total production of their printing and writing papers showed a downward trend (down 15.2 tons per year) from 1985 to 1995. Newsprint has dropped by 31.5 tons/year in the past period.
There are also certain problems in North America. In the early 1990s, due to certain problems and outdated equipment, some newsprint mills in Canada were closed, which resulted in only a slight increase in North American newsprint production capacity. In the past 10 years, the average rose only 0.7%.
Although the situation in Japan is better, it is similar to that in North America. The development speed of Japanese newsprint production capacity is lower than the world average (annual increase of 1.9%). But in the past 10 years, printing and writing paper has grown by nearly 4 million tons a year, which is an annual growth rate of about 5%.
Western European markets have a high rate of growth in cultural paper. The average annual growth of newsprint during the period 1985-1995 was 3%, and the annual growth rate of printing and writing paper was almost 5%.
What will be the level of development in the production capacity of supply in the next century?
We have reviewed the situation in the past 10 years. What will happen in the future? There are many comments on the excess production capacity of the paper industry and the problems faced by the paper industry. What will be the real situation of the paper industry in the future?
Practice has shown that it is possible to divide production capacity forecast numbers into two categories: one is the number that has been determined, and the other is the number of inferences. The former plan has been implemented, the contract has been signed, and the civil construction has begun...etc. In the latter case, although the abstract plan has been announced, it has not been finalized and put into practice; in some cases there is not even a single point of implementation. Based on these circumstances, we consider the development of production capacity in the coming years and can only consider those identified plans.
The development characteristics of production capacity are based on plans already in place. The development of newsprint production capacity in the world is expected to increase by 3.6 million tons per year by the year 2000. This means that the annual growth rate is 1.4%, which is lower than the historical development level. The development of printing and writing paper production capacity will have a higher growth rate. From the established plans, by the year 2000, the annual production capacity will increase by 10 million tons, and the annual increase rate will be 2%.
In the next few years, Southeast Asian countries will still be in the same leading position as in the past few years. By the year 2000, the production capacity of cultural paper in Southeast Asia will increase by 7 million tons per year. During the period, 2.5 million tons were newsprint and desperate for printing and typing paper. South Korea and Indonesia are still the fastest-growing producers in the period. However, other countries such as Thailand and Malaysia will also make full use of their forest resources as planned to develop their production capacity. China is a country with great potential for development. China is a country with great potential for development, but in the near future, they will renew their existing high-speed production enterprise structure, and at the same time deepen their efforts to build new companies as far as possible. (to be continued)
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