China's future paper products market analysis of total imports may decline

2010 is the year after China completes the 11th Five-Year Plan. In this year, the state continued to implement a macroeconomic policy based on moderately loose fiscal policies, and adhered to the strategy of expanding domestic demand, especially in response to the implementation of a series of economic stimulus policies successively introduced by the international financial crisis, making the domestic economy stable and faster. development of. At present, global inflationary pressures have increased, trade protectionism has risen, and unstable factors in the international economic environment have increased, which will bring greater pressure and influence on the subsequent development of China's paper industry. According to the domestic paper industry production and paper raw material supply and the domestic and international paper market trends, the author believes that the overall situation of the domestic paper industry production and market is: the growth of paper and paperboard production is expected to be around 6.5% in 2010, paper and paperboard production in 2011. The volume growth will basically maintain the growth rate in 2010.

The total volume of import and export of paper products has increased. In recent years, with the increase of total paper products and the increase of production scale, the sales of some enterprises have been globally balanced, which has led to the continuous growth of paper products in China in recent years. However, due to the rise of global trade protectionism, some countries in the world have also begun to adopt various restrictions on China's paper exports. At present, there have been many cases of anti-dumping and countervailing investigations on the export of paper products in China. Except for the United States and the European Union, countries such as Pakistan and Argentina, which have few imported Chinese papers, have also launched a “double-reverse” investigation against China. trend. Although there are many reasons for these problems, they will add more variables to imports and exports in 2011 and for some time to come.

Imports of commercial pulp and waste paper may increase the price of imported pulp and waste paper in 2010, and the RMB exchange rate continues to rise. Although the total domestic paper and paperboard production needs to increase the purchase of purchased paper pulp and waste paper raw materials, However, due to the recovery of paper production in Europe and the United States in 2010, the increase in demand for pulp and waste paper, coupled with sudden factors such as the Chilean earthquake at the beginning of last year, has resulted in a tight supply of pulp and waste paper. In addition, domestic importers are also concerned about risk factors such as market, inventory and exchange rates, which also led to a reduction in imports of commercial pulp and waste paper. Judging from the current situation, it is a foregone conclusion that domestic imports of pulp and waste paper have fallen sharply in 2009 compared to 2009.

In 2011, domestic demand for commercial pulp and waste paper imports was estimated based on the total domestic paper and paperboard production and domestic pulp production and waste paper recycling. In the case of unforeseen factors, commodity pulp and waste paper are expected. Imports will increase.

The growth of paper and paperboard exports will continue. The production of paper and paperboard in China should be basically based on domestic demand. However, due to the balance between production development and market demand, and the differences in paper production between countries, the paper is regulated by import and export. And paperboard consumption is inevitable. In recent years, with the increase in the production volume of China's paper industry, the export volume of paper and paperboard has increased year by year, but the increase in export volume is mainly coated paper and paperboard, as well as uncoated writing paper and household paper. These varieties are precisely the increase and concentration of domestic production in recent years, and there are more foreign-funded enterprises. On the one hand, they have improved domestic supply, and on the other hand, they have promoted and increased the export volume of domestic paper and cardboard. From the recent development of the domestic paper industry and product competitiveness, the growth of China's paper and paperboard exports will continue in 2011.

The total import of paper and paperboard may decline. The import volume of paper and paperboard in China has been decreasing year-on-year for three consecutive years. From the perspective of imported paper varieties, it is mainly used for packaging of cardboard, white cardboard and coated and uncoated writing and printing. paper. This phenomenon, on the one hand, indicates that the total amount of paper in our varieties is insufficient. On the other hand, it indicates that there are differences in the variety and quality of imported products and domestic products, or that there are irreplaceable products. Another aspect may be trade channels and consumption habits. The problem also provides a market direction for domestic paper manufacturers. Therefore, in 2011 or a longer period of time, paper and cardboard imports will still occupy a certain share of the domestic market, but the total import volume should be a downward trend.

The price of most paper products may fluctuate. With the acceleration of economic globalization, the global inflationary pressure brought about by the international financial crisis will inevitably affect China. Although the production and market demand of the domestic paper industry is basically stable, with the future exchange rate and inflation. Market changes brought about by many uncertain factors will cause cost pressure on the production of papermaking enterprises, which will cause fluctuations in the market prices of most paper products.

(Article source: China Paper Network)

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